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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    1. Austen Allred‏ @Austen 19 Nov 2020

      How would you guesstimate what the return of the S&P 500 will be over the next 40 years?

      106 replies 7 retweets 190 likes
      Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 20 Nov 2020
      Replying to @Austen

      Ask what its return was over the last 40.

      1:44 AM - 20 Nov 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 101 Likes
      • H.J Dennis Gorelik GraehamF Kashif Malik Jim Sokoloff DK Yair Livne Peter Haman Rajendra Prasad
      7 replies 1 retweet 101 likes
        1. This Tweet is unavailable.
        2. alnfrngtn‏ @allenf32 20 Nov 2020
          Replying to @theArpanG @paulg @Austen

          absolutely - and then mandate a bet on a randomly selected side of that interval.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. End of conversation
        1. Patrick van Hoof‏ @patvanhoof 20 Nov 2020
          Replying to @paulg @Austen

          Extrapolate from the gains the digital natives had in the last 20 years. The S&P 500 is still half 20th century (industrial era) & half 21st century (digital era) companies. Therefore, the historical gains before 2000 are much less reliable as input for predictions/projections

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        1. Rob Moore‏ @robmoo_re 20 Nov 2020
          Replying to @paulg @Austen

          More importantly, how would you estimate your error

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Matthew Rhys Barras‏ @mbarras_ing 20 Nov 2020
          Replying to @paulg @Austen

          PowerPoint built-in AI/ML analytics predict...pic.twitter.com/WXNc8Y32he

          1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
        3. Aydin Ghajar‏ @AydinGhajar 20 Nov 2020
          Replying to @mbarras_ing @paulg @Austen

          Why does the exponential curve become linear?

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. Derek Andriesian‏ @lerchmo 20 Nov 2020
          Replying to @paulg @Austen

          The last 40 years is way to small of a time period. The risk free rate can't really go to -15%pic.twitter.com/bk9Xj0iZkT

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Chuck Murphy‏ @MurphyResearch 20 Nov 2020
          Replying to @paulg @Austen

          Wall Street guys say valuations are so high right now that there will be a 10 year zero return period for businesses to catch up to their valuations.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Scott‏ @Brandwagon 20 Nov 2020
          Replying to @paulg @Austen

          Past performance != future returns

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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