How would you guesstimate what the return of the S&P 500 will be over the next 40 years?
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absolutely - and then mandate a bet on a randomly selected side of that interval.
End of conversation
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Extrapolate from the gains the digital natives had in the last 20 years. The S&P 500 is still half 20th century (industrial era) & half 21st century (digital era) companies. Therefore, the historical gains before 2000 are much less reliable as input for predictions/projections
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More importantly, how would you estimate your error
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PowerPoint built-in AI/ML analytics predict...pic.twitter.com/WXNc8Y32he
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Why does the exponential curve become linear?
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The last 40 years is way to small of a time period. The risk free rate can't really go to -15%pic.twitter.com/bk9Xj0iZkT
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Wall Street guys say valuations are so high right now that there will be a 10 year zero return period for businesses to catch up to their valuations.
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Past performance != future returns
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