The "next x" is often different from x in some surprising way that shows you were taking too much for granted about what x was. Perhaps for this reason, it's not usually found by searching for the next x.
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I think this applies to investment firms too. At MIT we have to be super careful and thoughtful about pattern matching when looking for the next generation of world class investors for MIT's portfolio.
People change a lot slower than technology though. Plus you have huge social pressure pushing you in certain directions, and since this pressure comes from people who neither know nor care about the work you do, it's effectively little more than a source of error.
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This is true, though I would argue that what makes a great investor is being well adapted to the world and business opportunity set at the time. So the traits of what made someone a good investor in the 60s is quite different (in many ways) from what makes someone good today.
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people have to figure out how to identify and follow the great "technology" and opportunity of the era (defined in a very general way). But I agree that a huge part of investing is behavioral and that part hasn't changed- it is probably the most dependable attribute for success
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