They just called Nevada and Arizona for Biden. If Trump wins North Carolina and Biden wins Georgia, the final result will be: Biden 306, Trump 232.
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This specific result was not too far from the middle of 538's simulations:pic.twitter.com/9ChcA9GHv2
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ROFL, that is really far from
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It was astonishing how much of a kicking 538 was getting on Tuesday/Wednesday last week. I've been reading and listening to their output for months and they have always been clear about what their model would and did say. It's a shame how it gets misrepresented.
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Except for the margins within states with were dreadfully inaccurate. Off by 5-8% in many cases. Had Florida for Biden by solid margin. 538 is
and didn’t learn anything from 2016 failure. -
i don't mean to dunk on your obvious electoral nous but i'm looking at the little map and florida is red?
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Out of all the major prediction sites, 538 had some of the most misleading graphics, no source code, and very little published about their methodology. I don’t know what they have to gain by being so cryptic.
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*where* it is in the set of simulations is not necessarily that useful to know - the distribution of outcomes is extremely spikey due to electoral college arithmetic and not well-summarised by mean or median. E.g. this is for The Economist's simulations:pic.twitter.com/3aQlJGyEqJ
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I can't find a high-enough resolution version of the equivalent 538 figure to compare - there's this one with the somewhat nonsensical smoothing on it but hard to see where 306 actually is:pic.twitter.com/R53NJkt7xd
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Just looking at their data, 38% of their simulations had Trump getting more EC votes. So, this outcome is well within the range of what they predicted and not too far from the median.
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