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What is happening on PredictIt? Are some nuts hoping against hope that Trump is going to make up a 45k vote deficit in Pennsylvania? (This is not a rhetorical question. I followed PredictIt during the election, and I'm wondering if I was following noise.)pic.twitter.com/4ESmqkZKNA
Finding numbers like this on one market when the betting is already over on Betfair etc is the information equivalent of finding a dead slug at the bottom of the cup after finishing your tea. What, you wonder, have I been drinking?
It's more like the equivalent of Hertz trading at 5 bucks a share after declaring bankruptcy.
In other words, a steal
It's not that surprising. Think about the percentage of the population that believes in conspiracy theories, the anti-maskers, etc., etc. You are drinking the 21st century, Paul.
That imagery is
The ratio of smart to dumb money must be very high to drive down those chances. And there isn't enough smart money that's interested in that, given their alternative, more hassle-free options.https://twitter.com/StefanFSchubert/status/1325567667059781637 …
If that's true, that would explain it. But if so PredictIt's utility is severely limited.
There’s a non-zero chance this isn’t over yet. @ScottAdamsSays has been talking about possible scenarios where Trump still wins, and the odds are higher than you’d think. It sounds crazy, but crazy circumstances is the norm for Trump.
PredictIt only allows a fixed number of traders per contract, I believe. I tried to place a trade on this the day before the election and the maximum number of traders had been reached. I'm not sure how the price is still moving; must be people holding existing contracts. Noise.
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