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What is happening on PredictIt? Are some nuts hoping against hope that Trump is going to make up a 45k vote deficit in Pennsylvania? (This is not a rhetorical question. I followed PredictIt during the election, and I'm wondering if I was following noise.)pic.twitter.com/4ESmqkZKNA
Finding numbers like this on one market when the betting is already over on Betfair etc is the information equivalent of finding a dead slug at the bottom of the cup after finishing your tea. What, you wonder, have I been drinking?
Lots of partisan wishcasters making bets. Not an efficient market.
Maybe reality has no truly efficient markets?
Surely you know about the Dominion software glitch and mounds of evidence being presented to the courts today?
Maybe go take their money?
obvious ideological/political bias of users of PredictIt showing here
predictit has low volume/liquidity. https://elidourado.com/election/ is based on betfair, which has a much larger market. still 93.5% there!
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