Two minor election observations I haven't seen elsewhere: 1: The magnitude of the stock market rise immediately following Biden's victory, seems to imply that the primary stock markets assigned more like betting-market 35% prior odds to a Trump victory, not 538's 10%.
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Very possible. See here, travel recovery was disproportionately higher. My view was vaccine news would only be shared after the election.https://twitter.com/gavinsbaker/status/1324399863124135936?s=21 …
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Should that mean markets going a little higher before the election, as savvy buyers bought in anticipating vaccine news released shortly after? (Still on mobile, still haven't checked graphs yet.) Also did anyone happen to tweet about this in advance rather than retrospectively?
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I'm on mobile, but if anyone's on a desktop they could check whether Pfizer and cruise ship stocks moved more sharply than other prices right after the election. But I find it hard to see "insider" info moving the entire S&P 500 that much!
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