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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    1. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 9 Nov 2020

      Two minor election observations I haven't seen elsewhere: 1: The magnitude of the stock market rise immediately following Biden's victory, seems to imply that the primary stock markets assigned more like betting-market 35% prior odds to a Trump victory, not 538's 10%.

      20 replies 3 retweets 120 likes
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    2. Dustin Moskovitz‏Verified account @moskov 9 Nov 2020
      Replying to @ESYudkowsky

      The market is also moving on vaccine news

      1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
    3. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 9 Nov 2020
      Replying to @moskov

      Today's market move, yes. I refer to the market move immediately after the election, which is the market reaction to Biden's probable victory. I'm sorry if the timing of my post made that unclear.

      3 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
      Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 9 Nov 2020
      Replying to @ESYudkowsky @moskov

      Is it possible that the market moved on leaked vaccine news at the time of the election? If you had insider information, that would be a great way to trade on it.

      10:40 AM - 9 Nov 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 14 Likes
      • Jules Sawyer 🚀 𝕯𝖗𝖆𝖌𝖔𝖓 𝕲𝖔𝖉 🚀 Nicest Snog Eli Tyre Joel mario AdrianBezler DisciplineResource
      3 replies 1 retweet 14 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Kulveer  ⚡️‏Verified account @kul 9 Nov 2020
          Replying to @paulg @ESYudkowsky @moskov

          Kulveer  ⚡️ Retweeted Gavin Baker

          Very possible. See here, travel recovery was disproportionately higher. My view was vaccine news would only be shared after the election.https://twitter.com/gavinsbaker/status/1324399863124135936?s=21 …

          Kulveer  ⚡️ added,

          Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker
          1) For anyone confused by my earlier tweet here is the performance yesterday vs. today (12 PM EST) for various GS baskets. Megacap Tech: +5.90%/+2.47% Expensive SW: +7.05%/+2.40% Stay at Home: +2.93%/+1.63% Travel/Leisure: +0.92%/+3.91% Reopening: +0.56%/+3.60%
          Show this thread
          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 9 Nov 2020
          Replying to @kul @paulg @moskov

          Should that mean markets going a little higher before the election, as savvy buyers bought in anticipating vaccine news released shortly after? (Still on mobile, still haven't checked graphs yet.) Also did anyone happen to tweet about this in advance rather than retrospectively?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Kulveer  ⚡️‏Verified account @kul 9 Nov 2020
          Replying to @paulg @ESYudkowsky @moskov

          Kulveer  ⚡️ Retweeted Gavin Baker

          And here:https://twitter.com/gavinsbaker/status/1324392046665359360?s=21 …

          Kulveer  ⚡️ added,

          Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker
          Market is beginning to anticipate the *tsunami* of phase 3 read outs for vaccines and therapeutics that we are going to see over the next 6 weeks. Many of these are likely to be highly positive.
          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 9 Nov 2020
          Replying to @paulg @moskov

          I'm on mobile, but if anyone's on a desktop they could check whether Pfizer and cruise ship stocks moved more sharply than other prices right after the election. But I find it hard to see "insider" info moving the entire S&P 500 that much!

          0 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
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