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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 6 Nov 2020

    Now the betting markets finally agree with 538 that Biden has a 90% chance of winning. They take a lot more convincing. A 90% chance means news organizations are on the verge of calling it.

    3:54 AM - 6 Nov 2020
    • 29 Retweets
    • 603 Likes
    • Irregular Frank MdSumonkhandokar Davin Bentti Jai Sharma Jake McCarthy Emily Pirtz Leif T Willerts Haron Rono Jing Yuan Liu
    44 replies 29 retweets 603 likes
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      1. Dan  💉 ⏳‏ @_dan_c 6 Nov 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        The only reason it isn't and hasn't been even higher is that they capped the number of traders, so new people can't enter the market

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. arkimedes‏ @rafingha 6 Nov 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        finally racism, covid, and climate change will end ❤️

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. sam  🐢‏ @digitalturtle_ 6 Nov 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        Betting markets were over 90% yesterday. Should be called once some PA votes comes in.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. Carole Alalouf‏ @calalouf 6 Nov 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        Awesome! Also, the mom in me is worried you are not getting enough sleep.🙃

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Tim Tesluck‏ @tesluck 6 Nov 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        Arizona Biden Leading by 47,052 votes Remaining 309,034 Georgia Biden Leading by 1,096 Remaining 5,268 North Carolina Trump Leading by 76,737 Remaining 190,621 Nevada Biden Leading by 11,438 Remaining 146,757 Pennsylvania Trump Leading by 18,229 Remaining 275,348

        0 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
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      1. cognitivedevelopments‏ @cogdevelopments 6 Nov 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        I worked in gambling. Let's not outsource our expectations about democratic probability to them, they know nothing more than we do. They just have their concentration sharpened by money on the line.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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