There's a big difference between statistical models and prediction markets this US election; and it's a puzzle why this is happening. Some guesses:
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We talked about this earlier, and I believe @NateSilver538 said that it was because the market odds are set by clueless and/or partisan bettors. I.e. it's the opposite of Poindexter's reason for favoring prediction markets: that they allow secrets to escape.
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Some people are arguing this can't be the case but look at the arguments for Trump winning on the boards at PredictIt. They can be summarized in one sentence: "Trump wasn't expected to win in 2016 but he did. So it will happen again." This is incredibly stupid.
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PredictIt, at least, is also closed to new bettors—so those who might want to enter (and influence) the market can't
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They would allow secrets to escape if they were efficient and liquid. The transaction costs are ridiculous, which keeps smart money out - there are better ways to make the same bet.
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Can you give some examples of more efficient ways to make the same bet?
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Also these markets that are accessible to US residents have roughly zero capacity. The ones that are liquid are illegal for US residents.
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It’s transaction costs IMO in places like PredictIT- 5% withdrawal fee. Other markets are driven by international perception then due to US gambling limitations. All in, smart money transaction cost super high
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Right, but the flaws of "regular" PMs are usually blamed on difficulty of accessing, fees and trading limits, but crypto markets have none of those issues. Crypto is hard to get into for most people, but for a subset of the population it's trivial...
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... but even still the crypto PMs roughly agree with the regular PMs. So the explanation must be something that crypto PMs and regular PMs have in common.
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