Also would be nice to see the previous NYT/Sienna poll data alongside it to see if the race has changed in recent weeks.
I wish they would add a column showing what their 2016 poll results were.
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sellside equity analysts have to do this for every stock we cover. I am surprised pollsters dont have to.
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I don’t think NYT did polling in 2016
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For example, the same poll in 2016 had Clinton ahead in Pennsylvania by 7 points:pic.twitter.com/y05dnVJqFP
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And then another adjusted poll accounting for education
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All four of those states were won by Trump in 2016, by only 100,000 to 200,000 votes — so close
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It would be interesting to see what their models from 2016 would predict with the polling data from 2020. Comparing 2016 to 2020 with different models is not really telling you much if models are significantly better now.
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The biggest difference is the much smaller pool of undecided voters this time.
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Also, what’s the margin of error?
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2016 polling didn’t correct for education which was the major error. 2020 now corrects for that
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