Why did the price of gold start increasing about half way through 2019?pic.twitter.com/JtESzfHlOf
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I love how every answer is both certain and totally different from one another.
That's very common on Twitter. But reassuring in a way. I don't feel stupid for asking, because whatever the answer is, it's clearly not generally agreed upon.
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I really notice it whenever you say anything about US politics, dozens of people roll in to state some fact or interpretation as if they were an expert, all of which fundamentally are operating from different realities, and the only direct interactions between anyone is insults.
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That's a different phenomenon. Especially recently, that's often astroturfing.
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I believe this is a question that Buffett and Munger would put into the “too hard pile” and move on with their lives. There are likely countless unknowable factors affecting both the supply and demand of gold.
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All these answers are good examples of trading noise that can add to a price move and even change the relative relationship between the USD and Gold. IMO,
@rashaadtayob and my reply speak to the core driver of gold price: USD direction, therefore US interest rate expectations.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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As an actual commodity trader with a focus on metals in the past (trading for investment banks on the LME, NYMEX, CME) we used to (half) joke that this was due to more buyers than sellers. Commodities markets are highly inefficient on many different levels. Worth avoiding tbh.
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Like the theory of machine learning ensembles: often accuracy peaks when there is enough diversity to produce a clear, simple majority winner, but not so much diversity that there's confusion.
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