@zeynep is a legend
When @jburnmurdoch said this was "probably the best article on Covid I've read," I had to read it immediately. It's really good, as everything from @zeynep seems to be.https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ …
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Thank you!
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And so we'll timed for the white house outbreak lol I was like 'omg I just read about this'
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This is great stuff. Explains so much.
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Suggests govts should stop micromanaging small businesses and focus entirely on preventing large, indoor, unmasked gatherings.
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that is so weak of them: "The U.K.’s recent decision to limit outdoor gatherings to six people while allowing pubs and bars to remain open is just one of many such examples.”"
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(1/2) Summary for lazy people like me : ⁃R0 is useless for overdispersed (stochastic) epidemic like COVID-19 ⁃Focus on k (dispersion) ⁃Focus on transmission events (clusters) not infected individuals (forest not the trees)
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(2/2) ⁃Backward contact & rapid tests (inaccurate antigen tests) are the solution to identify clusters ⁃Once a cluster is identified, PCR test each participant ⁃“avoid places where the[re are] three C’s-crowds in closed spaces in close contact [...],talking or singing”
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It sounds plausible.
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Why did South Korea and Japan notice this overdispersion so early? Why were we so slow to catch on? It’s not like we are short on researchers
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My sense from speaking to their scientists/reading their papers is they started ahead (SARS/MERS approach, rather than flu, set them on the right path—clearly more appropriate for a related coronavirus) and, crucially, the ones in charge were more sensitive to emerging evidence.
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