Chat with a lot of founders who are fundraising and exclusively hear 2 things and no in between: There is so much money! It’s literally raining cash. There is no money.
The biggest factor in most investors' opinion of you is other investors' opinion of you, so you get a bimodal distribution of outcomes.
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At least *some* founders are saying it's raining cash. That was not the case in e.g. late 2008 and early 2009.
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Fascinating how bad they still are at being contrarian. Their only objective is to be contrarian and correct. In what other profession can you get away with routinely doing the precise opposite of your half your job? Time for a VC index fund?
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The best ones are good at it. What's really going on is that there's a very sharp dropoff in quality among investors.
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The human evolutionary pull for being correct is stronger than the pull for being contrarian. So, when the task is to be both correct and contrarian, their evolutionary wisdom of the crowd shortcut to being correct kicks in, over and above being contrarian.
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