Nate deserves more credit than this. He is a numbers nerd, and like any competent numbers nerd his greatest fear is getting the wrong answer, not the wrong candidate winning. He is at least as earnest as you are, and indeed, rather more so, I'd say after reading this.
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If you could set up a http://joinmastodon.org server, you'd get 500 characters to talk about stuff. It might help avoid misunderstandings like this by using less general language and giving more space to cite facts.
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The models are more interesting than the personalities involved, and there is a notable divergence in both incentives and risks between the betting markets and traditional publishers.
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again, only one spine to see here
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I think you may have misread her tweet. I interpreted it as: "accusing me of not being earnest is itself a personal attack."
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