Why do Betfair's odds imply that Trump has a 37% chance of winning, while Fivethirtyeight says he has an 18% chance? Why the divergence?
-
There might be OK liquidity, but not fantastic, and another issue is that elections are rare enough that it would be hard to make a living betting on them (or to go broke by losing those bets). So you don't get the professionalization of the field.
It might be interesting if you tried to write something about when betting markets are likely to be right, and whey they're not. It would be an exercise in metaprojection.
-
-
This is a relatively easy question and as Nate correctly asserts based on a few factors like liquidity of the market, betting limits, whether there are “experts” in the market, etc. but where Nate and I are disagreeing is the inherent nature of this specific market
-
Also: the outcome of the election has an influence on market returns, so the demand for election bets as investment hedges may skew the betting markets (since Nate points out there aren’t “pros” in the market on the other side of the hedges). Liquidity is an argument against this
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
Paul - they are likely to be right when there is 'smart money' that sets prices. That is what happens with financial markets - there is enough smart money to move prices in line. Now, what do we mean by smart money? That would be people with extra, private information . ....
-
Such people know that they are onto a sure thing - once the world knows what they know, prices will move. Does that apply to betting markets - are there people with better polling info than in the public domain? If you had it, would you bet on the odds changing to reflect it?
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
I want to see 538 employees bet on the betting markets to show they're confident in their prediction.
#SkinInTheGame -
I’m pretty sure they’re not allowed to, as it would create a conflict of interest.
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
Probably when people betting/in the market have information that other people don't. Microsoft had a market that helped predict the release date of a product. They used this to get real info from software engineers since managers kept saying the release date would be sooner.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Betting odds are part predictive and part finding a spot where parties will bet.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
It might be more interesting if Nate puts his pocket where he puts his mouth. Talking is cheap.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Betfair has state-by-state odds in addition to "who will be president."
@NateSilver538 can you solve for the probability markets are putting on likelihood of Biden winning 270+ of delegates (based on states) but trump as president? e.g. odds of extra-electoral Trump victory?Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.