Why do Betfair's odds imply that Trump has a 37% chance of winning, while Fivethirtyeight says he has an 18% chance? Why the divergence?
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Which ones do you believe? Do you believe these odds at all?
After reading the replies, and remembering what the betting markets said last time, 538 seems more likely to be right.
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538 got it wrong last time fwiw.
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betting markets priced trump more likely to win than nate silver throughout the election last year.
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Superforecasters agree https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/# …
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Doesnt explain why betting markets would be so off. If there’s such a significant discrepancy why are savvy investors not placing large positions to take advantage of inefficiency?
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I think the point is that the better is on the presidential election are not necessarily savvy. My take: much of the country is blinded by polarization. If the odds are truly low of a Trump win, but the hard-core Trumpers naively bet on him, it will cause a bubble.
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I would say 100% chance of trump but what do I know
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Thoughts about some blue check “both sides” accounts calling 538 an ABC owned dem propaganda machine. Since when rigorous objective statistical modeling is dem propaganda?
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Science is dem propaganda
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If Joe can win MI, WI, and PA then he's won. Bonus points if
@MikeBloomberg swings Florida for Biden.
End of conversation
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