This is why betting markets don’t price it at 18%! Because why would you increase your exposure to a Trump win?
538 says Trump has an 18% chance of winning. Me: > (rand 100) 17 Fuck.
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Betting markets need to project what the polls say on the day if that’s why they have it at a bigger number. They’d be screwed if they expose themselves to 18% even for a week. People would gobble 18% on Trump.
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About the same odds as Russian Roulette. Fitting.
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we should just ask the Conway kid hh
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With our luck...
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You are someone a lot of people listen to. Use your voice!
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People that trust those polls deserve to get hit with the outliers
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Compare it to 538 in 2016 to be fair. You're comparing apples and oranges here. 538 had Trump at > 30% in 2016.
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