I don't think that's the explanation, because the odds at all the betting sites heavily favored Hillary in the early stages of the vote count on election day in 2016.
Looking at the replies, Occam's razor suggests the most likely explanation is that Betfairs's odds in a case like this are determined by unusually ill-informed bettors:https://twitter.com/MoneyandHonor/status/1313429892713897985 …
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A lot of bookies also offload their risk on betfair.
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Betfair's odds are not a predictor. They are a reflection of how much cash people are willing to stake on a specified outcome to derive a profit. The amount of profit (incentive) varies considerably over time (unlike polls). Odds over time reflect profit potential when placed.
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If you look at a 538 chart, you'll find it gets much closer to accurate as the event approaches. The betting markets do the same thing, but they are limited by a shortage of contrarian thinkers willing to take the (increasingly obvious) easy money. Is there a model in that...
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538's number is from their own model Betfair is determined by the market I think the market is pricing in polling error (partisan or low-trust non-response)
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Money on a trump victory would be the *smart* bet as he polled bad and won in 2016. Bettors would imagine they get better odds with Trump
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Well, counterpoint: The election is also determined by ill-informed voters.
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The "unusually" part is an assumption
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Didn't 2016 teach us anything about polls?
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