It may be the explanation, but even if so it doesn't necessarily say that one is more accurate.
I don't think that's the explanation, because the odds at all the betting sites heavily favored Hillary in the early stages of the vote count on election day in 2016.
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I'm thinking it's pretty straight forward. In 2016 people believed the polls and media coverage. In 2020 they do not.
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no they didnt, it was only the media with their 98% polls that were wrong the betting markets had it much closer
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Here's another good predictor. 36%https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1496-who-will-win-the-2020-united-states-presidential-election …
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Perhaps people are just hedging their vote. "Sure I get another 4 years of ripping my hair out but at least I won $1000!"
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Looking at the replies, Occam's razor suggests the most likely explanation is that Betfairs's odds in a case like this are determined by unusually ill-informed bettors:https://twitter.com/MoneyandHonor/status/1313429892713897985 …
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i think there are plenty of people on the prediction markets that are thinking 1. well the polls were wrong last time (they were within the margins of error) 2. they’re expecting some sort of crazy event / trump to cheat. i do think there is some $$ to be made on biden here.
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i can’t remember who but one smart person on twitter was talking about this: prediction markets don’t have enough attention right now to be efficient / more accurate. (and as for skin in the game i have a maxed out bet on biden on predictit)
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