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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 6 Oct 2020

    Why do Betfair's odds imply that Trump has a 37% chance of winning, while Fivethirtyeight says he has an 18% chance? Why the divergence?

    3:35 AM - 6 Oct 2020
    • 45 Retweets
    • 740 Likes
    • BREKKIE VON BITCOIN🥕 Johan Bakken Taxes violate consent. Sgt. Hodl 🖤💛 ejlflop Edward A Thomson Andrei Ilaș Himanshu Sahu James Collins
    326 replies 45 retweets 740 likes
      1. Mariusz Potocki‏ @slag87 6 Oct 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        Depends who you ask? 😉

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Peter‏ @Peter_0_0_g 6 Oct 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        Scottish teens?

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Daniel Endy‏ @DanielEndy 6 Oct 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        Wishful betting?

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Justin Poirier‏ @justinpoir 6 Oct 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        Capped bets so limited ability to move odds?

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Daniel Mateos‏ @danielmateos 6 Oct 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        Money is the best estimator

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. Genome Farcon‏ @FarconGenome 6 Oct 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        Liquidity

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      8. New conversation
      1. SeekMastery‏ @SeekMastery 6 Oct 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        They are all just guessing. 99% of the experts said there was no chance in 2016

        2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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