I’d like to better understand what accounted for this in Spain, as well as whether there are any ways to better understand case dynamics there (haven’t found a great data/journalism source):https://twitter.com/enzo_alt/status/1301075114751070208 …
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Never thought about 2) Makes sense
1) Lots of deaths in September, outside the graph. 2) Many unreported deaths outside hospitals, notification delays. 3) While the peak will probably be much lower this time, total number of deaths equal the area, not the peak. Area may be larger if epidemic wave is longer.
Partly it'll be due to younger cases and better treatment (including less overburdened hospitals). But the big one I suspect is that while *confirmed cases* are a small fraction of total cases now – they were an absolutely tiny fraction of total cases in the first wave.
You see part of this in the testing data. Spain is still doing very poorly in testing, but in the first wave it must have been very, very bad. They have not published data so we can't know how it was. The first data point – very late in the first wave – shows >25% +rate.pic.twitter.com/NSgH1hrwCR
Second wave has far fewer cases in high risk groups
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