I was taking Trump in bets against my friends and was requiring 4:1 odds. At the time I was influenced by something @ReformedBroker broker wrote earlier that fall.
I remember being told at the time by someone reasonably well connected that the Democrats believed they had an 85% chance of winning. I heard later that the Trump campaign themselves thought their chances of winning were slim. IIRC that number was 30%.
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So... they read 538?
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