For every 1 loud investor that made it with risky tactics there's 1000 investors that blew up. Focus on winning iterated games instead of being distracted by survivorship bias. This is especially relevant in crypto, where risk/reward is amplified, and time moves at 100x.
If the one successful investor made over 1000x, his strategy would still be a rational choice.
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winning value * probability of winning
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I would rather be lucky than good
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I’m not a Talebite, but this is where he would have mentioned path dependency.
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not really as you should probably not take existential risk. otherwise selling options to the tits would be an optimal strategy
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I'm unclear how either post implied existential risk? I think you've layered into your response assumptions neither the OP or the response asserted. Existential risk is not a relevant topic on either of these posts.
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This is only true if you are a risk-neutral (vs. risk averse or risk seeking) investor and have a linear utility curve. Most people have neither disposition. However, it could still be rational (if you highly value extreme upside and don't mind consistent losses..)!
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There's still an ergodicity problem with that. (There's blowing up, and then there's *blowingup*; risk/reward doesn't work with absorbing barriers if you can't come back from the loss). Assuming blowup ≠ ruin, then I'm
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Eliminating real-world constraints such as cash and time, yes. Or, as my HS physics teacher would frequently add, "in a vacuum".
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In the aggregate yes, but the individual has a different risk profile than the aggregate
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