Modeling a Wealth Tax: http://paulgraham.com/wtax.html
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If the argument here is that people won't start startups because of a wealth tax -- I'd really be curious to meet the people who are driven enough to start a startup before a wealth tax, but now won't because of a wealth tax that kicks in only after they already made $50 million.
It's not simply a question of starting a company vs not starting one. Founders often move to start startups, and are often on the fence about which place to choose. E.g. should they move to SV or not? If one place has a wealth tax and the other doesn't, that could tip them.
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Your state or country doesn't have to lose many founders to be badly hurt. You just have to lose Bezos and Zuck and 10 or 20 more. And founders like that often do expect to be very successful. Bezos was the youngest SVP at D. E. Shaw. He didn't quit to make $50m.
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You chose 2 very bad examples as it’s dead easy to look at the history of both of these individuals and know that taxes never crossed their mind when launching their ideas.
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As a founder from outside California, I have almost no interest in moving my company (or starting another one) in the SV area. The tax environment is already predatory compared to most of the country, and there is the most potential downside risk for future tax increases.
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