I asked an infectious disease expert I know when things will be completely back to normal, as in flying on planes without masks back to normal. His answer: 2024.
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Will vary a lot, no, even from person to person? If you get a vaccine in January 2021, you can do almost everything (even presumably crossing borders by showing proof of vaccination)
Vaccines are not 100% effective. They're exciting to governments because they slow diseases' spreads, but they're not a silver bullet for individuals.
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They have to be effective for a subset of population with a good enough probability to break the chain, no?
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I will be comfortable with 99% effective as I am with yellow fever and others
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Vaccines would turn a deadly virus into a tame virus. It would give our immune system a headstart provided you take the right vaccine. As of now the best vaccine you can possibly have is the BioNTech/Pfizer one although Oxford which would be the first one available is acceptable
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I imagine what you mean by 99% effective when talking about vaccines is that the small number of cases where an infection could take place it would nonetheless be mild?
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Yes but a vaccine even if only 80% etc effective can create herd immunity and effectively eliminate the virus. Can easily reduce R to beneath 1 even with no distancing measures thus causing the virus to fizzle away!
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Precisely this.
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neither flight are full proof safe. Best is to stay at home.. pls dont go outside..
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Especially when you consider that way too many people want to wait until it's been tested. Even though it IS being tested. We need 70% of people to get it before we can even potentially approach herd immunity.
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I've been saying don't expect much to change from today (today's proper practices) until mid-2021. Back to "normal," way beyond that, if ever.
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