exactly. cd be super slow
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But the testicle damagehttps://twitter.com/ameensol/status/1285067430503387136?s=19 …
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It would be more prudent to use confirmed deaths and the known best estimates of IFR (~0.6%) to infer the current daily infections. Working from testing gap to IFR would be more error-prone since testing gap is not a reliable metric.
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in fact that's where the testing estimate comes from. From the IFR, you would expect 20M to 30M cases in the US but we only have about 4M confirmed positives, very low for 143k confirmed deaths.
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Would the fatality rate be the best data we have, since it’s more likely to be measured/recorded?
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Also what about potential for quickly losing antibodieshttps://www.healthline.com/health-news/covid-19-antibodies-may-fade-quickly-what-this-means-for-herd-immunity …
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The numbers are wrong. Case numbers are exponential, not linear.
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Please whenever herd immunity is mentioned add the assumption of immunity via infection, which is currently inconclusive.
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There are scientists who are making two claims at the same time without publicly recognizing the inconsistencies. 1. IFR is > .5% 2. There are 10x the number of cases compared to PCR tests. These can't both be true at the same time.
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If true likely to be low. But also note: if the cases were mild, how long and how good a future protection to antibodies provide for herd immunity is perhaps also a question mark
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