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Overly simplistic. These are complex systems and many professional herd immunity experts are now arguing it could as low as 20% not to mention T cell immunity.
1/ Disagree. But I’m biased since the mandatory lockdown resulted in my sons suicide. Knee jerk policy decision from rabid empathy (horrendous for policy making) vs rational compassion for downstream health effects.
2/ selective depletion” of people who are more susceptible—can quickly decelerate a virus’s spread.
His math is goofy. It only works if every infected person equals a tested and recorded case.
Herd immunity only works in previously infected don't become reinfected. This virus reinfects.
Regardless, recent research shows antibodies lasting only several months. More importantly, some have been reinfected after showing antibodies.
Not to mention that antibodies seem to only last 3 months. So as soon as you get close, you’d have to start all over again
I believe his logic is incorrect. HIT = 1-1/R(o). To attain 40%, you need infection rate R(o) of 1.65. So it is not a straight 1.2m needed (3k/day) but rather a R(o) of 1.65 or below. And, as mentioned, we seem to be seeing a lot of examples of sharp declines of R(o) at 20% HIT
Paul, he's conflating confirmed cases with actual infections—a pretty egregious error. Even per the CDC, our testing regime misses 10x infections. So his numbers are off by at least a factor of 10: based on the numbers he gave, MS is at ~12% prevalence, not 1.2% as he's assuming.
^ what you said @vishalgondal
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