"Obviously if you're wrong, you don't make money, but what most people don't realize is if you're right in consensus, you don't make money because the returns get arbitraged away." — Andy Rachleff
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It's also why brilliant VCs are often spectacularly wrong in politics. A "50-50 chance the Trump presidency “ends in disaster”" would be great odds in VC, where risk << potential reward, but not in politics.https://www.thedailybeast.com/billionaire-maga-fan-peter-thiel-has-had-it-with-trumps-covid-19-response …
On the whole they got this one right. Only a tiny minority of them supported Trump.
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