"Obviously if you're wrong, you don't make money, but what most people don't realize is if you're right in consensus, you don't make money because the returns get arbitraged away." — Andy Rachleff
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People think being a contrarian is the risky path. But, having no outrageous ideas in life feels riskier to me.
Whether it's risky to be contrarian depends on the situation. In a situation dominated by politics, as in management at a big company, it's risky to be a contrarian. When your success depends on results, it's risky not to be.
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Maybe this is why Silicon Valley hasn’t seen a “Facebook or Google” in 10+ years. We all think the same nowadays! (Journalists bad, competition bad, sleep good, etc...)
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Facebook & Google are the reason it's been 10+ years since a competitor of their size emerged. Antitrust law is dead, long live antitrust law
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It also depends on one's goals. The risk/reward equation of contrarianism changes dramatically if you are motivated for the betterment of society as a whole, rather than just for oneself.
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