"Obviously if you're wrong, you don't make money, but what most people don't realize is if you're right in consensus, you don't make money because the returns get arbitraged away." — Andy Rachleff
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The reason the intersection between successful investors and bien pensants is so small is that to succeed as an investor, you have to be aggressively opposed to groupthink.
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By being right-in-consensus, you break even, while being wrong means you actually lose money, right?
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Or just groupthink with successful investors.
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Just like how a founder needs to be opposed to groupthink and aggressively pursue their vision with conviction, relentlessly.
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I’d like to subscribe to an investor newsletter that tracks wokeness in companies. Might be a good proxy for groupthink.
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Do you though? Did the investors in Lyft make out so much worse than those in Uber that the herd effect is unquestionably selected against?
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What are some of the ways you have developed to breed counter-groupthink ideas?
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There are some techniques for avoiding groupthink here: http://paulgraham.com/say.html
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Oh! And “You don’t want people saying you’re nuts too often—once every three or four years is good. Any more than that, and you should be worried, because no one’s smart enough to have a good idea more than once every three or four years.” -
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