The reason the intersection between successful investors and bien pensants is so small is that to succeed as an investor, you have to be aggressively opposed to groupthink.
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"Obviously if you're wrong, you don't make money, but what most people don't realize is if you're right in consensus, you don't make money because the returns get arbitraged away." — Andy Rachleff
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People think being a contrarian is the risky path. But, having no outrageous ideas in life feels riskier to me.
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Whether it's risky to be contrarian depends on the situation. In a situation dominated by politics, as in management at a big company, it's risky to be a contrarian. When your success depends on results, it's risky not to be.
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There’s no short cut to making money
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*contango has entered the chat
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In the age of passive investing and index funds the consensus seems to be doing well enough.
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Still very happy with low cost index fund returns. Beating most of the pros over time, with very little effort
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The thing about the consensus is that it’s usually right
HOWEVER, the S&P500 will take a looong time to catch up to that Tesla stock’s returns.
Only problem now is picking the next Tesla. So I don’t disagree with you.
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Also, group think is a pathway while consensus is a destination. It is entirely possible to end up in the consensus via a completely novel and independent thought process, separate from the crowd.
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