Let's change the question. Who among well-known figures is unusually good at predicting the future, and what traits do they have in common? And who do you personally know who seems to have a gift for it?
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Hmm. It seems that a great startup investor can be great at seeing various potential futures without having any particular knack for predicting the actual future, because the times they are right matter a lot more than the times they are wrong.
Ability to predict the future is not simply percentage of correct predictions. If it were, I could be a perfect predictor by saying e.g. tomorrow will be friday, the sun won't explode, etc. Predictive ability is correctness times riskiness.
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Timing matters a lot, though. I have a pretty strong track record predicting the future, but my estimates about when things would happen has often been off by many years. Startup success, in particular, requires accurately predicting both the what and the when.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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