Let's change the question. Who among well-known figures is unusually good at predicting the future, and what traits do they have in common? And who do you personally know who seems to have a gift for it?
Any consistently successful startup investor is good at predicting the future, because that's what the job consists of. Traits the good ones have in common: optimism, curiosity, independent-mindedness, willingness to question assumptions, including their own.
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Of course
@PTetlock wrote a book about itThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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This is wrong. A good startup investor has good returns, not necessarily a good average. For example, you will make 10X on your money if you make 100X on each correct bet, but are right only 10% of the time
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@KiteVC would be a good'unThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Plus an effective feedback mechanism, in that if they get it wrong, they don’t make money?
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Claire, when you say predict the future, do they necessarily have a hand in making it happen?
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Is the same for a successful startup founder?
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The future seen by VCs is a self-fulfilling prophecy — they're not predicting the future but "forcing" / accelerating it.
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In their dreams.
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The same applies to any consistently successful hedge fund manager, no?
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All investors do in the trivial sense of predicting the future price of some asset, but the degree to which those predictions depend on interesting predictions about the world varies greatly. Some hedge funds do no more than predict a stock price half a second from now.
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