This pattern holds through many different fields. The better you are at something, the more dangerous it is to care about conventional opinion.
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The median investor's first question is "who else is investing?" The reason really good investors don't ask this is not because they're more disciplined, but because averaging their opinion of you with those of other investors would decrease its accuracy.
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They are proud followers. Lol
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Ok. And how does SoftBank do it? What is their first question?
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More of a statement - if you don’t take my money, I’m going to invest in your competitor.
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This seems right: who else is investing is after all part of the signal. What information one chooses to extract from it and how one chooses to use that is another matter. But ignoring it on principle seems counterproductive.
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This trend can be seen in multiple other scenarios - when people are taking a job, when people are deciding if an event is going worth too, and more. Our psychology optimizes for the quickest way to filter and decision and most of the times these work but not in investing.
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I don't care who is investing when I am as it's typically super early. But I do like to know that a VC I think highly of is leading the next round
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Yes, Peter Thiel said this was the most consistent pattern he'd seen: that when a top VC leads a later round for a company you've invested in, you make money from doing your pro-rata. But this is arguably a different judgement, since so much has changed by that point.
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Aggregating opinions is valuable when the other forecasters aren't calibrated significantly less well than you, in a correlated fashion. This says that early stage investors (not liquid markets) seem to exhibit this failure mode. Interesting, if true.https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1277532654716489728 …
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@RokoMijicUK This is an interesting offshoot of our ongoing discussions of Hal Finney's ideas about average-case decision making.https://twitter.com/QVagabond/status/1207238354481418240?s=20 …
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