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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    1. Sam Altman‏Verified account @sama 28 Jun 2020

      The last socially acceptable year to eat meat from dead animals in the US will be in the:

      125 replies 48 retweets 242 likes
    2. Mckay Wrigley‏ @mckaywrigley 28 Jun 2020
      Replying to @sama

      In 2100 we’ll all get cancelled and have our statues torn down over factory farming.

      6 replies 1 retweet 88 likes
    3. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 28 Jun 2020
      Replying to @mckaywrigley @sama

      Or something else we could never predict, any more than people in 1940 could have guessed what would get you cancelled now.

      8 replies 0 retweets 89 likes
    4. Sam Altman‏Verified account @sama 28 Jun 2020
      Replying to @paulg @mckaywrigley

      I generally agree it's hard to guess, but this is a case where I think we can predict a likely cause of future mass cancellations.

      13 replies 0 retweets 63 likes
      Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 28 Jun 2020
      Replying to @sama @mckaywrigley

      That *sounds* reasonable, for the same reason it seemed obvious to me as a kid that we'd be living in space stations by now, but history suggests you can't extrapolate 80 years ahead based on current trends.

      12:37 PM - 28 Jun 2020
      • 2 Retweets
      • 143 Likes
      • Albert Szabo Francesc Rosas Severin Ibarluzea Danita Walton glebsap coreygwin.eth Addy Ganesh mitti Fernando Almenara
      9 replies 2 retweets 143 likes
        1. _‏ @zzxiv 28 Jun 2020
          Replying to @paulg @sama @mckaywrigley

          aren't those called outliers?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Nima  🌎‏ @NimaRoohiS 28 Jun 2020
          Replying to @paulg @sama @mckaywrigley

          Except physics laws, which says anything except physics law will be deemed suboptimal in the future.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. New conversation
        2. sam  🐢‏ @digitalturtle_ 28 Jun 2020
          Replying to @paulg @sama @mckaywrigley

          sam  🐢 Retweeted Philip E. Tetlock

          https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/1264162849003376641?s=19 …

          sam  🐢 added,

          Philip E. Tetlock @PTetlock
          No one has demonstrated better-than-chance skill at forecasting politically contested outcome variables 5-plus years out. So Roubini’s confidence in his 10-year depression forecast is remarkable & analogous to a runner claiming he can break the 3-minute mile, with zero evidence https://twitter.com/ejames_c/status/1264158886774181889 …
          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. pandemic hair‏ @PandemicHair 28 Jun 2020
          Replying to @digitalturtle_ @paulg and

          Why do people still listen to Roubini? He predicted how many recessions in the last 15 years?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 28 Jun 2020
          Replying to @paulg @sama @mckaywrigley

          Imagine someone in 1940 trying to predict what you'd get fired for today. Imagine how astonished they'd be if you told them.

          12 replies 2 retweets 107 likes
        3. matt knox‏ @mattknox 28 Jun 2020
          Replying to @paulg @sama @mckaywrigley

          I think it’s even harder in times of turmoil.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. $rd8720‏ @RyanCodeDesign 28 Jun 2020
          Replying to @paulg @sama @mckaywrigley

          All you need is one “Kanye West” to change how people look at life. I’m being funny. But really tho.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Benedict Evans‏Verified account @benedictevans 28 Jun 2020
          Replying to @paulg @sama @mckaywrigley

          The problem with these kind of questions is it if you’d asked them in 1900, everyone would’ve talked about war, poverty and Empire but almost no one would’ve mentioned gay rights. How can we know?

          3 replies 1 retweet 27 likes
        3. Mckay Wrigley‏ @mckaywrigley 28 Jun 2020
          Replying to @benedictevans @paulg @sama

          Exactly. Make a list of all the things you think we could get cancelled for in 100 years. Odds are that few, if any, will be right.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation
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        2. Anshu Skyflow  🌶‏ @anshublog 28 Jun 2020
          Replying to @villi @paulg and

          I think borderism goes the way of racism before this. Shouldn’t we first treat humans across imaginary lines equal?

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. End of conversation

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