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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    1. David Lieb‏Verified account @dflieb 7 Jun 2020

      David Lieb Retweeted Paul Graham

      At Bump, we tried to measure candidates’ “Ratio” = (how capable they think they are)/(how capable they actually are). Best people ended up around 1.1-1.2.https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1269593235741081601 …

      David Lieb added,

      Paul GrahamVerified account @paulg
      Replying to @ValaAfshar @gc
      When we predict future outcomes, we do it based on our present ability. But in fact working on a problem will usually increase our ability. Someone's who's slightly overconfident compensates for this underestimate, and thus predicts correctly.
      14 replies 5 retweets 113 likes
      Show this thread
      Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 7 Jun 2020
      Replying to @dflieb

      What an interesting idea. I suspect the optimal ratio would be higher for startup founders. I bet also that it decreases with age.

      8:44 AM - 7 Jun 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 38 Likes
      • Peter Borah Will Strimling micah.fyi Bilal Farooqui Shih Wen Hsiang John Nack Thysy Trinh Paulo Silveira
      4 replies 1 retweet 38 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Mengu Kagan‏ @mengukagan 7 Jun 2020
          Replying to @paulg @dflieb

          i'd argue that it might increase with age. they'd know what to do and how to do it. they'd also filter the work and interactions better to achieve success. that is of course if they don't have anything else going on in their lives and assuming that they have a will made of steel.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. louis lebbos‏ @LouisLebbos 7 Jun 2020
          Replying to @mengukagan @paulg @dflieb

          Your argument is for the increase of the denominator thus decrease of the ratio. I'd argue some people increase in cockyness after some luck or belief in their 'expertise'.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. Yukkuri Onega Ishimaas  🧐‏ @Vathashimo 7 Jun 2020
          Replying to @paulg @dflieb

          It decreases with age on account of base effect, or the waning of ability?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Thysy Trinh‏ @ThysyTrinh 7 Jun 2020
          Replying to @paulg @dflieb

          dunning kruger effect 10.5/1

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. John Nack‏ @jnack 7 Jun 2020
          Replying to @paulg @dflieb

          One of the exceedingly rare compliments I’ll grant Trump is that his deep ignorance lets him believe that the otherwise outrageous is actually possible, and then reframe the conversation so at least part of it happens.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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