In the long run, the optimists end up doing more.
When we predict future outcomes, we do it based on our present ability. But in fact working on a problem will usually increase our ability. Someone's who's slightly overconfident compensates for this underestimate, and thus predicts correctly.
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Have the most excellent Sunday 
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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The key is to never be more than slightly overconfident. That's where most slip up eventually... Ego usually tends to inflate.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@paulg this is the first time I'm hearing how slightly being over confident can help. ps: also love the fact how you keep things simple.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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This is profound and if it’s a unique insight you should coin it. Great lesson in decision making.
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Thanks. It's how YC picks founders. You have to predict not what they can do, but what they could do. The result, curiously enough, is that YC often has more confidence in founders, initially, than they do in themselves.
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