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What % of the startups you fund fail (acquihire/shut-down/cant pay back investment) at YC? Even the cream of the crop founders selected by YC fail at a very high rate.
Maybe 3/4. But the phrase "cream of the crop" is misleading, because YC deliberately casts a wide net. Early stage, mistakenly rejecting a startup is way worse than mistakenly accepting one.
But you have to recognize that realistically they are the most earnest, push the hardest, and are very smart. And yet, that failure rate. I’m in no way arguing with your model. It makes perfect sense. I’m simply saying compounding profits is a safer path to wealth.
many folks do 4-5 startups within the 20 year compounding period and end up at same expected value. Both are fabulous paths and better than working a lifetime in largeco.
One interesting caveat is that, is one failed start-up gonna limit future opportunities for the founder? If not, one can build 4-5 venture type start-ups in 20-year horizon, that will increase the odds of success significantly.
The feeling is even worse if the YC eventually understood how great the idea is doing, but off course these are some of the risks taken.
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