What’s an easier path to wealth? PATH 1: VENTURE STARTUP - 95% chance of $0 - Tiny personal income while building startup until IPO/scale - Massive dilution (most founders end up owning 5-15%). $1BN market cap = $50-$150MM for founder. OR...
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I think everyone and even median person should try at least once. How otherwise they would know?
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@paulg that is very good explanation of ergodicity
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This is an edge case that's often a success from the founders' POV but a failure from the investors'. When it happens, many VCs feel they ought to extract something, e.g. sell the co to another portfolio co. I encourage founders to resist this.
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What % of the startups you fund fail (acquihire/shut-down/cant pay back investment) at YC? Even the cream of the crop founders selected by YC fail at a very high rate.
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Sure, but a cream of the crop founder's success rate might be 15% and they can try multiple times.
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This goes back to the fact that MOST people think they are better than average. "It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent." –Charlie Munger
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Isn’t that a feature, not a bug? People thinking they are better than they are is the only way they actually build companies that sane people would see as insane. And it doesn’t always work. But many “failures” (like myself) just get back to work on the next thing.
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May I ask how I can know if I belong to the group that are suited for it, before actually doing it?
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