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It's a fallacy to think that the fact that x% of startups fail implies that your probability of failing is x%. It's more a reflection of the distribution of ability among the people who start them.
For people who are sufficiently smart and determined, the expected value of starting a startup is quite high. For people who aren't, I agree completely with your advice.
Given that many successful startups were founded by founders that have several failures under their belt I would say the failure rate is still relatively high for sufficiently smart and determined founders.
Maybe they weren’t as smart the first time around? They gained experience and can make better decisions as a result of their failures.
Again selling the myth of the superhuman. Lets be honest: plenty of average and even incompetent people ride the boat due to connections | Luck and a combination of both. Its good advise to self-assess where one stands though.
Your maths is so off
i think the general point that andrew is making holds true, whether you are a sufficiently smart/determined founder or not - your chances of attaining wealth are generally higher when taking your time with a more or less "bootstrapped" business
There is an element of randomness, but in my limited experience, it's poisonous people and misaligned (perhaps unclear) objectives that lead to failure. Even bad ideas are survivable, because people learn. Solve real problems, satisfy your customers, get & stay cash-flow positive
This is also a fallacy to believe that startup success is determined only/mostly by hard work and smartness. Macro trends, social capital are more important, by orders of magnitude @profgalloway
You’re also forgetting gender, socio-economic background of founders and race. These all affect successful outcomes too. Dare I say even more than hard work or intelligence do
problem is I think I'm sufficiently smart and determined. But, I also know I might be wrong. So I assume I have the average chances of success.
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