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What’s an easier path to wealth? PATH 1: VENTURE STARTUP - 95% chance of $0 - Tiny personal income while building startup until IPO/scale - Massive dilution (most founders end up owning 5-15%). $1BN market cap = $50-$150MM for founder. OR...
It's a fallacy to think that the fact that x% of startups fail implies that your probability of failing is x%. It's more a reflection of the distribution of ability among the people who start them.
This really blew my mind. Thanks Paul 
Thank you for finally pointing this out, as an 'authority' on this topic.
For people who are sufficiently smart and determined, the expected value of starting a startup is quite high. For people who aren't, I agree completely with your advice.
Given that many successful startups were founded by founders that have several failures under their belt I would say the failure rate is still relatively high for sufficiently smart and determined founders.
Sure, but 90% of the people reading his tweet will likely fail. 
Empirically, returns are not evenly distributed by fund. Therefore, if you're funded by a bottom quartile fund...
Yes, true, but it still holds that 95%+ of startup founders will fail... to point out that the ones who do fail likely aren’t as talented as the ones who succeed doesn’t change that. What Andrew is proposing is a path where the success rate for more folks might be higher.
Truth that applies fo everything hard not just startups. I wish expected value was taught to kids in primary school.
I explained it to my older son at about 8 via soccer — that the expected value of getting a shot off fast was higher than that of taking the extra touch, even if it meant he sometimes missed the goal.
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