When an expert in a field says that something is strange or puzzling, it's worth paying a lot of attention to. You could probably write an interesting book by talking to experts in different fields and asking them what they'd noticed that seemed strange.
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Company success/failure prediction has been a textbook application of artificial intelligence for about 2 decades, I find it very surprising that VCs don't have very reliable software to help with that.
Some VCs use software. Notably Google Ventures, or whatever they're called now. But the software can only act on what you can feed it as input. Where the founders went to college, and crap like that.
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May i suggest why predicting startup outcomes is very hard? First of all, predicting anything is hard. Harder for 10y horizon. Harder for very small chance of success since the probability is very small and the product of many small numbers
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On the last point, this point looks analogous to estimates of finding alien civilization calculations. For instance, good startup needs to be good in making sure that receivers (other civilisations) hear the signal - hard
End of conversation
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