When an expert in a field says that something is strange or puzzling, it's worth paying a lot of attention to. You could probably write an interesting book by talking to experts in different fields and asking them what they'd noticed that seemed strange.
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What's strange/puzzling in your field, Paulg?
It's puzzling how hard it is to predict startup outcomes. Even good pickers are terrible at it. It's puzzling how many things haven't been written about in essays. It's puzzling how much duplicated effort there is in software development.
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Very interesting indeed. What about machines for #1 (unless that's a trade secret)?
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Company success/failure prediction has been a textbook application of artificial intelligence for about 2 decades, I find it very surprising that VCs don't have very reliable software to help with that.
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For something as complex as building companies out of innovative but speculative sources of value, we should marvel that it ever works, and not expect to discover the entrepreneurial equivalent of Newton’s Laws of Motion. https://twitter.com/markrhill/status/1264177355553153025?s=21 …https://twitter.com/markrhill/status/1264177355553153025 …
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I like how those last two points about essays and software are essentially the same problem
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not enough diversity in essays and IT code - people are similar in organisational life, but still very different in personal lives- is puzzling. Too much consensus, we need anti-bitcoin ehich encourages diversity
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Let me try, it is puzzling Markets - how markets are not very efficient in capital allocation, few alternatives were tried Physics - how progress stopped and physicists became groupthink and fashionthink Psychology - how people are very different still in the information age
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Let me try more since it is a good question Puzzling that majority of physicists see no alternatives in their world view to “the theory of everything “ Puzzling that people can believe in anything
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On a high level, there's massive duplication of software features. Until you're trying to reuse some components and realize that making them actually work in your stack is far more time consuming than building your own.
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It may sound counterintuitive but, in my experience the difference between a map and a territory is higher in case of startups. Predications made on the basis of such maps, which are far removed from territory, fail spectacularly.
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#1 Maybe bc beyond known pitfalls and basic success ingredients, luck plays a bigger role than most would like to admit.
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