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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 10 May 2020

    Danger = level of exposure x time.https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them …

    1:05 AM - 10 May 2020
    • 375 Retweets
    • 1,230 Likes
    • Oliver Saumya Doshi Daisy B Haden Second Time Founders 212 Tyler Cooking by the Numbers Prakash Ramnath
    35 replies 375 retweets 1,230 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Firas Durri‏ @firasd 10 May 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        Great article. I know America is not set up for this but a galaxy-brain solution would be to move everything outdoors. Like outdoors barber shops even. Commandeer parking lots, put tents over them and make them venues for things like spaced-out restaurant tables, nail salons etc.

        4 replies 1 retweet 27 likes
      3. Firas Durri‏ @firasd 10 May 2020
        Replying to @firasd @paulg

        As for meatpacking plants maybe PPE (masks, face shields etc) would help..

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Kavir | indiacovidresources.in‏ @kavirkaycee 10 May 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        Kavir | indiacovidresources.in Retweeted Kavir | indiacovidresources.in

        Long haul flights would be the worst offenders - close confinement over long period of time.https://twitter.com/KavirKaycee/status/1255422884719276032?s=19 …

        Kavir | indiacovidresources.in added,

        Kavir | indiacovidresources.in @kavirkaycee
        This would seem a reasonable inference. Long haul flights would be the biggest culprits. You'll be in close confinement over multiple hours. https://twitter.com/_cingraham/status/1255167628013953024 …
        0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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      1. GavinSelvaratnam‏ @GavinSelvaratna 10 May 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        Thankyou this is very good info.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. David desJardins‏ @David_desJ 10 May 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        Probably not linear in time. Because there's a hidden variable, some are much more effective spreaders than others, so P[infection|hour exposure] can be much less than 60*P[infection|minute exposure].

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Bologna Fish, M.D.‏ @BolognaFishMD 10 May 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        Bologna Fish, M.D. Retweeted Bologna Fish, M.D.

        The asymptomatic spread portion of the post is at odds with WHO. Just sayin'https://twitter.com/BolognaFishMD/status/1257197972539838467?s=20 …

        Bologna Fish, M.D. added,

        Bologna Fish, M.D. @BolognaFishMD
        The WHO got a lot right. But they definitely did not initially think asymptomatic spread was significant. "And then with asymptomatics, again it doesn’t look like that’s a big part of the picture. There was just no data that supports that." Aylward 2/25 https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-audio-emergencies-coronavirus-press-conference-aylwardb-25feb2020-final.pdf?sfvrsn=9d732ce3_0 …
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        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Thomas Henwood‏ @Klutzes 10 May 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        Chance of exposure x Intensity and duration of exposure x Vulnerability to the bad end of outcomes

        1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
      3. λ‏ @andreivolt 10 May 2020
        Replying to @Klutzes @paulg

        Also threshold for infection varies with immune system health. Ties in with vulnerability of outcomes.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Gary Hatch‏ @GaryHatch 10 May 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        The dets are there

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Austin Ryder‏ @austnryder 10 May 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        I love physics-esque approaches like this. Makes intuition easier, and translates to more generalizable behavior. Specific behaviors only get you so far and limit your judgement.

        1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
      3. Austin Ryder‏ @austnryder 10 May 2020
        Replying to @austnryder @paulg

        Judgement is best derived from an understanding of mechanics, not an accumulation of advice.

        0 replies 1 retweet 13 likes
      4. End of conversation

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