Paul GrahamVerified account

Uncertainty handling: founders (not so) secret power!

Markov models of multiple redundancy layers?

1. Do not consume the same content as everybody else around you (i.e. ditch mainstream, embrace the fringe) 2. Once you find topics, take a dive; go for the real source of information instead of consuming semi-digested (e.g. media vs academic paper) 2 3. Apply Bayesian thinking

Would love to hear @AnnieDuke talk about this by thinking in bets...

Getting better at handling Micro uncertainty helps with predicting Marco uncertainty. Predicting Macro uncertainty does not necessarily help in handling Micro uncertainty?

When you trade options you are required to have that level of thinking. Especially when selling out of the money calls or puts.

Yup. A sailor tacks by finding the wind then steering into the sweet spot, not calculating where the sweet spot should be then aiming for the wind.

My strong opinions about my biases have been humbled.