Paul Graham on Twitter: "UW projects 82k US Covid-19 deaths by Aug 4. Expects peak resource use on Apr 15. https://t.co/Ty3xfK5PFy"

Country	Code	For customers of
United States	40404	(any)
Canada	21212	(any)
United Kingdom	86444	Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
Brazil	40404	Nextel, TIM
Haiti	40404	Digicel, Voila
Ireland	51210	Vodafone, O2
India	53000	Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
Indonesia	89887	AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
Italy	4880804	Wind
3424486444	Vodafone
» See SMS short codes for other countries

1. Jash Sayani‏ @JashSayani 6 Apr 2020
  Replying to @paulg
  
  I hope the shelter-in-place doesn’t last till August.
  Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
  
  Undo
1. JJ ‏ @WhimsyTX 6 Apr 2020
  Replying to @paulg
  
  JJ Retweeted James Melville
  
  Another success story - New Zealand As far as I know we do not even have a plan.https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1247051240791515136 …
  
  JJ added,
  
  James Melville Verified account @JamesMelville
  
  New Zealand went hard and went early. A mass testing and one month lockdown right at the start of the spread of the Coronavirus has meant that there has only been one fatality so far. They nipped the virus in the bud. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/06/new-zealand-sees-positive-signs-amid-strict-coronavirus-lockdown?CMP=twt_a-world_b-gdnworld …
  
  1 like
  Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
  
  Undo
1. Steve‏ @sdot0811 6 Apr 2020
  Replying to @paulg
  
  Numbers are going down..good sign
  Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
  
  Undo
1. David Troup‏ @davidtroup 6 Apr 2020
  Replying to @paulg
  
  That model is bunk
  
  1 like
  Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
  
  Undo
1. Show replies
1. Charlie Stromberg‏ @CharlieStrombrg 6 Apr 2020
  Replying to @paulg
  
  Could someone explain why deaths lag so much from resource usage? Is this assuming more even geographic distribution of viral spread?
  Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
  
  Undo
1. Pratap Ranade‏ @PratapRanade 8 Apr 2020
  Replying to @paulg
  
  PG - we just published a comparison of COVID-19 forecasting models, including IHME (UW)'s. Charts are interactive so you can tweak the assumptions. Open sourced all the code & training data. Updates daily: http://covid.arena-ai.com/ Would welcome any feedbackpic.twitter.com/2tBti5VZNZ
  
  1 like
  Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
  
  Undo

Loading seems to be taking a while.

Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

Tweets

Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

Tweets

Loading seems to be taking a while.

false

Saved searches

Tweets

Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

Tweets

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

Promote this Tweet

Block

Tweet with a location

Your lists

Create a new list

Copy link to Tweet

Embed this Tweet

Embed this Video

Preview

Why you're seeing this ad

Log in to Twitter

Sign up for Twitter

Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

Confirmation

Welcome home!

Tweets not working for you?

Say a lot with a little

Spread the word

Join the conversation

Learn the latest

Get more of what you love

Find what's happening

Never miss a Moment

Loading seems to be taking a while.

Promoted Tweet

false