Lockdown is expen$ive! What does it buy? (1) Flatten curve at pandemic peak, (2) Delay peak hoping for vaccine (3) Delay peak for time to expand docs, beds, ventilators, tests, apps, etc. Only (1) seems cost-effective to me, but if so, deliberate exposure would also help now.
(4) Delay peak while doctors learn how to treat it, and (5) researchers discover drugs that are effective. http://qbi.ucsf.edu/COVID-19
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There is also the very real possibility that lockdown degrades our ability to respond over time, medically and otherwise.
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Okay, but that's really what I meant by (2), delay hoping for effective treatment.
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Flattening the curve IS deliberate exposure, just in an ad hoc way.
End of conversation
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And if a good treatment is not to be found do we go full Morlock and Eloi, or do we decide that, like almost all our ancestors, a percentage of people dying from communicable diseases (they faced tuberculosis and smallpox) is just the cost of a living society?
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(6) give ancient, natural, inexorable (but unfortunately not as-fast-as-we'd-like) process of 'optimal virulence' more time to work, & a steeper fitness gradient, so circulating strains become milder (more like the 4+ endemic 'common cold' coronaviruses)https://en.wivipedia.org/wiki/Optimal_virulence …
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