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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg Apr 1

    Paul Graham Retweeted Luca Dellanna

    In Bergamo, the death rate in March was 6x what it usually is.https://twitter.com/DellAnnaLuca/status/1245161232476209154 …

    Paul Graham added,

    Luca Dellanna @DellAnnaLuca
    Largest study of Bergamo province so far finds out that: - 5400 people died this March - 4500 of which suspected COVID deaths - 2600 of which officially COVID - Compared to 900 deaths only, average of last 3 years (sampling cities representing >50% of local population)
    Show this thread
    1:25 AM - 1 Apr 2020
    • 32 Retweets
    • 126 Likes
    • Laurent Belkacem Jamie Rawsthorne RDickinson Ratheesh pai Lawrence Chan Garett Jones Topias Uotila Mimmo Cosenza Sfikou
    8 replies 32 retweets 126 likes
      1. Yoav Lurie‏Verified account @yoavlurie Apr 1
        Replying to @paulg

        An ER doc told me yesterday, "God help you if you get something other than COVID. Like, we'll try to get to you... in July. Take some Tylenol if you can find any." So, the very existence of COVID-19 actually kills people who never get it.

        0 replies 2 retweets 10 likes
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      1. Ben CS‏ @BenCS13 Apr 1
        Replying to @paulg

        Only way to gauge the true death toll will be to look back at excess mortality in a year's time

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      2. Oli Norwell‏ @OliNorwell Apr 1
        Replying to @paulg

        Will be fascinating to look at these figures in 4 years' time. If the non-C19 deaths are roughly similar per year to 2015-2019, then we can assume those dying from C19 weren't "about to die anyway". Of course we might find data that suggests they were 1-2 years away.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Jack‏ @Jac5Connor Apr 1
        Replying to @OliNorwell @paulg

        We won't know what the real numbers look like anywhere for a long time.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. Jack‏ @Jac5Connor Apr 1
        Replying to @paulg

        Every rumor and anecdote points to this be true pretty much everywhere.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Akis Apostolopoulos‏ @AkisApostolop Apr 1
        Replying to @paulg

        This is why the theory "the flu kills more people every year" is seriously flawed. Exponential growth is not taken into account

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Jack Bewley‏ @jackbewley Apr 1
        Replying to @paulg

        This is the number I’m curious about. Hard to find a realtime number for US cities/states.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Margreth Mpossi‏ @margrethmpossi Apr 1
        Replying to @paulg

        NYS Covid19 deaths from yesterday 391 And average daily deaths usually ~450

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      2. Basile Genève‏ @basile_sportif Apr 1
        Replying to @paulg

        Given that other places have now had massive Covid spread, without anything close to those numbers (not to downplay the tragedy in other areas), more people should be asking: “what the hell happened in Bergamo?”

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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