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The average ambitious person spends too much time accumulating optionality & too little time taking actual risk. They compete insanely hard to accumulate options for the future, instead of figuring out what they really want to do & doing that instead.https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg/status/1082783328397230080?s=20 …
This sounds like a plausible theory. It might be worth spending some time thinking about how to prove it.
Can't be proven in a traditional sense because the output variable varies.
How many people do the most upwind major in Ivy League schools vs regulat schools?
Or, on how to disprove. That’s the approach science would take.
Anecdotally, this just hit me hard in the truth box
I’m curious. You mean its worthwhile to prove the average ambitious person spends too much time accumulating optionality? It seems like it’d be more fruitful to think about/discuss/prove whether alpha > optionality. I find Mihir Desai (and Erik) persuasive.
Better to preserve the optionality by instead expanding on the career thread.
In "Zero to One", this is referred to as Defined Optimism.
While I don't think this directly conflicts with the "Upwind" section of @paulg's http://www.paulgraham.com/hs.html article, I would love for @paulg and @eriktorenberg to hash this out and tell me what you come up with. 
As an ex-banking, 3x founder this debate acutely interests me.
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