What explains this? Was it political correctness? Continuity bias? The complacency of the elites? Lack of historical knowledge? Virtue-signaling? Groupthink?pic.twitter.com/YYEhIPKR2r
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Journos had to predict massive institutional failure too. The base rate chance of a pandemic happening was low, the experience of SARS shows that outbreaks can be contained, and if institutions like the WHO hadn't failed, we would all be in the same position as Japan right now.
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Regardless, I'm not sure you could have predicted "catastrophic outbreak" purely from the R0 figure. Even now, we're not sure how well contract tracing works. You would have to ask the people who do contract tracing, i.e. the WHO, who were saying it was fine.
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you could from assymptomatic transmission.
End of conversation
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Better than Europe, but not really because the government was at all competent.
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