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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    1. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 23 Mar 2020
      Replying to @MaxCRoser @tylercowen

      It would be fine to have a threshold for sample size.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    2. Max Roser‏Verified account @MaxCRoser 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @paulg @tylercowen

      Now, we have it. The CFR for all countries that make the threshold of 100 total confirmed cases.https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coronavirus-cfr …

      3 replies 3 retweets 11 likes
    3. Max Roser‏Verified account @MaxCRoser 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @MaxCRoser @paulg @tylercowen

      And because someone rightly complained that the Add Country button wasn’t as prominent as it needs to be, that button is now bigger and blue.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    4. Max Roser‏Verified account @MaxCRoser 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @MaxCRoser @paulg @tylercowen

      And here is CFR vs median age in the country:https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/case-fatality-rate-of-covid-19-vs-median-age …

      1 reply 2 retweets 4 likes
    5. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @MaxCRoser @tylercowen

      Might be worth making the radius of the circle the log of the total number of deaths. Then it would be easier to ignore the outliers.

      1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
    6. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @paulg @MaxCRoser @tylercowen

      It would be interesting to see this on a log scale too. A handful of outliers are cramming a lot of interesting data into the bottom quarter of the graph. Why not make it a feature of all your graphs to have a button for switching from linear to log on the y axis?

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    7. Max Roser‏Verified account @MaxCRoser 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @paulg @tylercowen

      Good points! Just changed it: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/case-fatality-rate-of-covid-19-vs-median-age … The size of the circle now corresponds to the total confirmed deaths up to that date. And you can switch any of the axes to log.

      1 reply 3 retweets 15 likes
    8. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @MaxCRoser @tylercowen

      I already learned something interesting. Judging from the data so far, the way countries end up with a lot of deaths is by having a high CFR (rather than having a high population).

      6 replies 0 retweets 22 likes
    9. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @paulg @MaxCRoser @tylercowen

      In fact, Max, how about a scatterplot of CFR vs total deaths? That should show the correlation directly.

      2 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
    10. Max Roser‏Verified account @MaxCRoser 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @paulg @tylercowen

      Don't know what your prior was, but maybe it's less correlated that you had thought? https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/deaths-covid-19-vs-case-fatality-rate … (By clicking into the timeline you can see the change of both variables over time which shows that not in all countries both measures moved together.)

      3 replies 4 retweets 8 likes
      Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @MaxCRoser @tylercowen

      There looks like a definite trend to that data.

      1:05 PM - 24 Mar 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • Max Roser Jerseyan
      4 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        1. Taufiq Muhammadi‏ @waruboy 24 Mar 2020
          Replying to @paulg @MaxCRoser @tylercowen

          How about CFR vs tests per million population?

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        2. Max Roser‏Verified account @MaxCRoser 24 Mar 2020
          Replying to @waruboy @paulg @tylercowen

          Here it is Taufiq: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/case-fatality-rate-of-covid-19-vs-total-covid-19-tests-per-million-people …

          3 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
        3. Show replies
        2. New conversation
        1. Alec Wilson‏ @alecfwilson 24 Mar 2020
          Replying to @paulg @MaxCRoser @tylercowen

          Hard to untangle the causality though - it seems somewhat tautological that more deaths would yield a higher CFR and vice versa

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        2. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 24 Mar 2020
          Replying to @alecfwilson @MaxCRoser @tylercowen

          It would be tautological(ish) if it were deaths per capita rather than simply deaths.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Show replies
        3. New conversation
        1. Alexey Shamrin‏ @megaflop 24 Mar 2020
          Replying to @paulg @MaxCRoser @tylercowen

          There are lots of countries with less than 10 deaths on this plot. The outbreak in those countries could have started later compared to others. This means people "destined" to die haven't died yet. Thus much lower CFR.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        2. Alexey Shamrin‏ @megaflop 24 Mar 2020
          Replying to @megaflop @paulg and

          Same with Italy, Spain, China in the top right corner. Outbreak started earlier, thus more time to play out cases outcomes, including deaths. This raises CFR.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Show replies
        1. manthan shah‏ @manthan197 26 Mar 2020
          Replying to @paulg @MaxCRoser @tylercowen

          How about CFR vs average temperature of the country in Last 2 months?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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